Stanford Economists Have the Data on What AI Is Doing to the Job Market. Here’s What They Found.
Erika McEntarfer, the former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and now a policy fellow at Stanford’s SIEPR, offered some reassurance: the bottom isn’t falling out of the overall job market. But she acknowledged clear signs of weakness. Jobs with heavy AI exposure are softening. Jobs with low AI exposure (home health aides, manual labor) are holding up.
What the panel found most striking is the structural shift happening in professional fields like law, banking, and medicine. Those industries used to look like a pyramid: lots of entry-level roles at the base, with fewer positions higher up. AI is collapsing that base by absorbing the junior-level work that used to be how people got started. The panel’s term for it: a shift from a pyramid to a diamond. The career ladder still exists, but the bottom rungs are disappearing, and fast.
Erik Brynjolfsson, director of Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab, said he’s confident AI will generate real wealth and productivity gains. His concern is about who benefits. “I’m really concerned that it’s not going to be evenly distributed,” he said, “and that a lot of people will be hurt in a significant way.” Chad Jones, a Stanford economics professor, echoed that: a world where AI drives explosive growth is very likely also a world of steep inequality. On the policy side, Brynjolfsson was blunt: the government is effectively flying blind, without the real-time data or training infrastructure needed to help workers keep pace.
Your RTO Mandate May Be Undercutting the Very Tools You’re Paying For
There’s an irony buried in the RTO debate that employers need to reckon with. According to a report from Employee Benefit News, the same AI tools companies are investing in to boost productivity are making remote collaboration so seamless that workers have a harder time understanding why they need to be in the office at all.
According to a survey from workplace insights platform Byteiota, 80% of employers say they’ve already lost talent over return-to-office mandates. Among currently employed workers, 41% say they’d seriously consider leaving if forced back full-time. Meanwhile, a Harris Poll survey found that 73% of business leaders say AI has made their teams more productive when working together remotely, with 72% reporting improvement in real-time collaboration.
Despite that, 68% of companies still cite teamwork as the primary justification for calling workers back. It’s a contradiction that’s hard to ignore. The organizations getting this right aren’t choosing between remote and in-person; they’re asking a better question: Does this task require a person in a specific chair, or does it require a result? If it’s the result that matters, rigid location requirements are a recruiting disadvantage. Companies competing for talent against employers who offer genuine flexibility are going to feel that gap.
Wages Are Growing, But the Workers Being Left Behind Are Multiplying
The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker for February came in at 3.7%, up from 3.6% in January. It’s a modest move, but wages are still growing. The bigger story is the trend underneath that headline number.
Wage growth has been cooling steadily since its 2022 peak. The youngest workers, ages 16 to 24, are seeing the strongest gains of any group at 6.4%, a relative bright spot given the high unemployment rate that age group is currently facing. Workers 55 and older sit at just 3.0%. By industry, construction and mining lead at 5.7%, which tracks directly with what the Stanford panel said about low-AI-exposure jobs holding up.
The number that deserves the most attention: 13.4% of workers received no raise at all in February. A year ago, that figure was 12.2%. More people are stuck in place while inflation keeps moving. That connects to a broader pattern we’ve been tracking: workers staying in jobs out of fear, not satisfaction, because the market simply isn’t offering them anywhere better to go.
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Layoffs Aren’t Surging, But That’s Not the Same as Things Being Fine
Weekly jobless claims for the week ending March 7 came in at 213,000, down 1,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average dropped to 212,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.85 million. New York was an outlier, posting an increase of 17,265 claims driven by layoffs in transportation, warehousing, food service, and healthcare, but that spike appears state-specific rather than a national signal.
The floor is holding. Workers aren’t being let go in large numbers. But as we’ve noted consistently, low layoffs aren’t the same as strong hiring. Companies are holding tight, not adding headcount, and that pattern has now stretched across many months. Stability is better than a collapse, but it’s not a recovery.
The Bachelor’s Degree Jobs With the Most Openings Over the Next Decade
The Bureau of Labor Statistics just published its projections for bachelor’s degree jobs expected to have the most openings annually from 2024 through 2034. General and operations managers top the list at 308,700 projected openings per year, a reflection of how many degreed workers ultimately land somewhere in the broad management category. BLS highlights leadership, problem-solving, and adaptability as the critical skills for the role. Those are the same qualities employers across almost every industry say they struggle to find, which is no coincidence.
Rounding out the top five: registered nurses (189,100 openings/year), accountants and auditors (124,200), software developers (115,200), and business operations specialists (108,200). The software developer figure is worth sitting with. Put it next to the Stanford data showing entry-level developer hiring is down 20%, and you get a more complete picture: the jobs aren’t disappearing, but getting your foot in the door is harder than it used to be. AI is enhancing what experienced developers can do, and some companies may need fewer people overall, but long-term demand for the role remains real.
Human resources specialists also made the top 10 at 81,800 projected openings per year, which shouldn’t surprise anyone watching how dramatically hiring is evolving. If you’re advising someone on college or career planning, lists like this matter. A degree still opens doors, but going to college without a clear direction is a much riskier bet than it used to be. For a deeper look at where tech hiring specifically is headed, the forces shaping this list don’t stop at the degree requirement.
Frequently Asked Questions
Both. Stanford’s SIEPR panel shared data showing entry-level software developer hiring is already down 20% and call center hiring is down 15%; those are current figures, not projections. At the same time, new roles in AI-adjacent fields are growing. The real risk is for workers who aren’t adapting to the shift.
Jobs requiring physical presence and human judgment (skilled trades, healthcare, and manual labor) are holding up best right now. Brynjolfsson’s research also shows that workers who actively use AI to learn new skills are seeing employment growth, while those who use it only to automate existing tasks are losing ground.
A degree still leads to significantly higher wages and more job openings than positions that don’t require one. The risk is choosing a generic major without a clear career path. BLS projects nearly 1.3 million annual openings across just the top 10 bachelor’s-level occupations, but the skills employers actually want (problem-solving, adaptability, leadership) matter as much as the credential itself.
Many employers cite collaboration as the reason, but the data doesn’t fully support that rationale; 73% of leaders say AI has already made remote teams more productive.
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Stanford’s SIEPR Panel: The AI data that Should Change How You Think About Your Career
Welcome back to Cornering the Job Market. Today’s headlines include new data that shows how AI is impacting return to office mandates. I’ll also share the Atlanta Fed’s latest wage growth numbers, and the BLS just ranked the jobs requiring bachelor’s degrees that are expected to have the most openings through 2034. We’ll get into all of that. But first, a panel of top economists from Stanford just put hard numbers on what a lot of workers have been feeling. They did this while on stage at their 2026 Seapere Economic Summit. Here’s some of the data they shared. Entry-level software developer hiring, which is workers age 22 to 26, is down 20%. Also, call center hiring is down 15%. And these aren’t predictions. We see predictions a lot, but this is what’s already happened.
Erica McIntarfer, if you recognize that name, she’s the former head of BLS, said the bottom isn’t falling out of the overall job market, but there are clear signs of weakness. Yes, yes, there are definitely those, Erica. Jobs with heavy AI exposure are softening. Jobs with low AI exposure, like home health aids and manual labor, are actually growing a little bit. But what really stood out is the panel described a shift in professional fields like law, banking, and medicine. Those industries used to look like a pyramid, right? Lots of entry-level jobs at the bottom, but AI is eating into that base. It’s handling the junior level work that used to be the way into these careers, where you’d start. So the career ladder still exists, but the bottom rungs are disappearing and they’re disappearing rapidly.
The panel calls it a shift from a pyramid to a diamond. Eric Brinyolfsen, who’s the director of Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab, said he’s really concerned that it’s not going to be evenly distributed and that a lot of people will be hurt in a significant way. He’s confident AI will create wealth and boost productivity, but is concerned about who is going to benefit and who will be left behind. Chad Jones, who was also on stage, he’s a Stanford economics professor, echoed that, saying a world where growth explodes is very likely a world of great inequality. On the policy side, Bryn Jolfsen said the government is flying blind. When are they not, right? Without real-time data or training programs needed to help workers keep up. Also, Macintarfer had what is really practical advice. She said, never underestimate just how valuable being a worker who can get stuff done for your bosses. That is so true. It’s a different way of saying something that I say often, which is your whatever job you’re in, if you’re an employee somewhere, the most important thing is to be valuable to whoever you report to, be valuable to your boss. Make sure that they know you’re someone they can’t live without.
So it’s really good advice. Operate that way if you’re in the job market, because let’s be real, AI is changing everything about professional careers, specifically how you get started in your career. So pay attention to what AI is doing. Be part of that solution for your organization, whatever it is. So that’s what’s going on there. But being someone who just shows up and gets things done, that still counts for a lot. Hopefully that never changes.
AI and RTO: Why the Tools Companies Are Buying Are Making Their Mandates Harder to Justify
Next, here’s some irony for employers. This is a story from Employee Benefit News that shows the same AI tools companies are investing in are making remote collaboration so effective that workers see less reason to come back to the office. 80% of employers say they’ve lost talent because of their return to office mandates. And 41% of workers say they’d consider leaving if forced back full-time. Meanwhile, the tools are working. They appear to be anyway. 73% of leaders say AI has made employees more productive when working together. 72% say it’s improved real-time collaboration. Those numbers are from a HarrisPol survey.
But 68% of companies still cite teamwork as a reason they’re calling people back. It seems to me that the companies getting this right are asking a simple question. Does this require, does this task require a person in a specific chair, or does it require a result? If it’s the result, let people work where they work best. Let people work from anywhere. Because there’s no question that rigid RTO policies are a recruiting disadvantage. If you’re competing for talent against a company that offers flexibility and you don’t, you’re going to lose. And the data is very clear on that.
Wages Are Up 3.7%, But 13.4% of Workers Got No Raise at All
Also, today the Atlanta Feds wage growth tracker was just released. It comes out every month. It went up. It edged up to 3.7% in February, up from 3.6% in January. Not a huge move, but does show that wages are growing. But it is a trend that has been cooling significantly since the highs we saw in 2022. Young workers aged 16 to 24 seeing the strongest wage growth of any group. That’s good. They’re at 6.4%. But workers 55 and older are just at 3% even. So that’s not great to see. Although I’ll take it to some degree because young workers also have high unemployment right now. So if you can get a job, it’s a good one, or at least it seems to be increasing, have pay increasing at a good pace. So that’s a bit of a silver lining. Maybe that’s a stretch to call it that.
But look, as they say often, we’ll take positive news wherever we can get it. Now by industry construction and mining lead everyone at 5.7%. Can’t automate a job site, not yet. So that lines up with what the Stanford panel was saying about low AI exposure jobs holding up. 13.4% of workers saw no raise at all in February. A year ago that was 12.2%. So when you look at the trend, that certainly is heading in the wrong direction. And because more and more people are sitting in place with flat pay, but inflation continues to go up, we know that. And that connects directly to MetLife data I recently shared that showed 56% of workers staying are staying in their jobs out of fear, not loyalty. So a lot of people just feel stuck right now. And the job market isn’t giving us anything to say that they shouldn’t feel that way. But that’s just if they don’t have good options, they’re going to stay where they are and just have to take it whether they want to or not.
Weekly Jobless Claims: The Floor Is Holding, But It’s Not a Recovery
And on that note, here’s a quick update from the weekly jobless claims that came out. They came in at 213,000 for the weekending March 7th. That’s down a thousand. Okay, so any anything time that’s down is good. And the four-week average, a moving average dropped to 212,000. And continuing claims also fell down to 1.85 million. On the state level, New York had the biggest spike uh last week. They were up 17,265 claims. So New York is a bit of an outlier there for sure. We continue to see more layoff announcements. Um, but even with that, I mean, it even though it’s not at scale now, low layoffs aren’t the same as strong hiring, very different. So companies just continue to hold tight, they’re not adding headcount, and unfortunately, that’s a pattern that we’ve been seeing for months now, many months.
BLS Bachelor’s Degree Projections: 308,700 Manager Openings a Year, and What That Really Means
And finally, for today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics just ranked which bachelor’s degree jobs or jobs that require bachelor’s degrees will have the most openings over the next decade. General and operations managers, that’s at the top, and that is where so many people end up was in sort of that generic management space. You’re a degreed worker. They top the list at 308,700 openings per year. The key skills BLS highlights, and we hear this a lot from employers, leadership, problem solving, and adaptability. Now, problem solving in particular has been a recent complaint of many employers from a lot of the surveys that I see of younger people.
So go in with that mindset, and that strongly relates to what we talked about a few minutes ago that managers value people who do things. And one of the things that makes an employee more valuable than anything else, in my opinion, as a staffing company owner and as someone who has had employees for 20 years now, since I started my staffing company, those who can solve problems are always the best employees. So it’s a it’s something everyone should consider. Um everything supports that that I’ve ever seen, as well as my first hand experience. So rounding out the top five from this list are registered nurses, accountants and auditors, software developers, and business operations specialists.
Now, the software developer number is interesting because when you put that next to the Stanford data from the first story that showed entry-level developer hiring is down 20%. Well, the good news is there are still going to be plenty of openings projected, 115,200 to be exact. And that tells us the jobs aren’t disappearing. And as time goes on with AI becoming more prevalent, it just is enhancing what developers can do. Yeah, some companies may need fewer people in the role, but there’s going to be more companies developing their own software. So I think the future is bright there. But there’s no question it’s hard to get started. So if you’re in school right now or thinking about your next move or know someone who is who is young, it’s good to pay attention to lists like this to really read what is projected. And the world is changing constantly, we know that.
But going, if you’re gonna go to college, go with a plan and not just to obtain a generic degree because all the data shows that that is becoming less of a factor in someone’s career success and their ability to get started in their career. So that is it for today. Kind of neutral, right? There’s been some positive news today, not a lot of negativity here, other than we know that things are getting tougher for uh continue to get tougher for young workers, but kind of a flat week overall. And since we’ve had so much bad news, we’ll take neutral, I guess. That’s if that’s it, it’s better than going backwards. So that’s it for today.
Fun Fact: Before the 1900s, Most Workers Only Had One Day Off a Week
Here’s your fun fact before we go. Before the 1900s, many people worked six days and only had Sunday off. That was the norm. Certainly not anymore. Let’s not go back to that. And on that note, I’ll say goodbye and to enjoy your weekend. Please like and subscribe. I’d appreciate that. And I look forward to talking to you soon.
