Layoffs Are Near a 57-Year Low, and Job Seekers Should Plan for a Longer Search
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According to the Department of Labor’s latest Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, fewer Americans filed for unemployment last week than at almost any point in the last 57 years. First-time jobless claims were 189,000 in the week ending October 31, down 6,000 from the prior week’s revised 195,000 and below the 196,000 economists had forecast. The number ties the mid-July reading, which news coverage described as the lowest since 1969. Because July’s reading was revised to 189,000, today’s report ties that low and does not set a new one.
The 4-week average fell 2,250 to 194,750. Before seasonal adjustment, 176,698 people filed, compared with 216,026 in the same week last year, an 18% drop. Claims have stayed mostly below 200,000 since mid-September. In Florida, initial claims fell to 4,518 from 5,198.
Continuing claims moved the other way. They rose 23,000 to 1,718,000 for the week ending October 24, and the insured unemployment rate held at 1.1%, down from 1.3% a year ago.
Employers are holding on to the people they have. I covered the same pattern in last week’s claims report, and the weekly numbers keep pointing in the same direction.
Low layoffs tell half the story. A rise of 23,000 in continuing claims could be noise, and I would want a few more weeks before calling it a trend. If it holds, it would mean the people who do lose a job are taking longer to land the next one. Companies that rarely lay anyone off also are not adding many people. BLS reported only 29,000 jobs added in September, and a survey of economists projects about 65,000 for October when the report comes out Friday. My read is that the market feels stuck for anyone on the outside looking in.
If you have a job, your security is about as good as it has been in decades. If you’re looking, plan for a search that takes longer than it would have 2 years ago. If you’re hiring, the same data means your best candidates are still employed and have little reason to move without a strong offer, and we can help you build one.
Economic Conditions Passed AI as the Top Layoff Reason, and Holiday Roles Make Up Most Hiring Plans
U.S. employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The total is up 2% from September’s 43,281, down 71% from 153,074 in October 2025, and below the 2015 to 2025 October average of 56,348. Challenger calls it a 3-year low. Year-to-date cuts are 617,189, down 44% from the same point last year.
Market and economic conditions were the top reason for cuts for the second straight month, with 16,407 cuts, or 37% of October’s total. Economic conditions have now passed AI as the top reason for the year at 130,531 cuts. AI was cited for 1,265 cuts in October, its lowest month of 2026, and it still accounts for 121,401 cuts this year, about 20% of the total. Cuts blamed on a demand downturn are up 145% for the year, at 21,347. Challenger says the reasons employers give “have shifted from technology to the economy.”
When companies stop citing AI and start citing demand, my read is that they are telling you they are nervous about sales. It usually shows up in hiring before it shows up in layoffs.
Hiring plans reached 444,692 in October, up 57% from 283,138 a year ago. Most of that is seasonal hiring by Amazon (300,000, which is 50,000 more than each of the last 3 years) and UPS (100,000). Only 5 companies have announced seasonal hiring this year, compared with 11 at this point last year. Take Amazon and UPS out of October and about 45,000 announced hires remain, by my math.
The hiring number needs that closer look. Companies want help for the holidays with an end date attached, and Challenger says seasonal roles provide capacity “with an end date built in.” Seasonal and contract roles let employers add capacity without adding permanent headcount. If you need short-term capacity of your own, our staffing services cover contract and temporary roles.
Technology still leads all industries with 171,501 cuts this year, up 21%. Microsoft offered voluntary exits to 60,000 employees in October, and Challenger does not count those offers in the monthly total. Challenger says such offers “tend to signal more layoffs to come.” I covered the details in my Microsoft buyout analysis, and I would keep an eye on that one, because a voluntary offer is a quieter way to shrink a company.
Staffing your team doesn’t have to be hard.
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Florida Stood Still While 226 Metro Areas Improved, and Orlando Now Sits Above the National Rate
Unemployment rates were lower in September 2026 than a year earlier in 226 of the 387 metro areas the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks. They were higher in 138 and unchanged in 23. Forty-eight metros were under 3.0%, and 5 were at 8.0% or higher. The national rate, not seasonally adjusted, was 4.0%. The September figures are preliminary.
Bismarck, North Dakota, Rapid City, South Dakota, and Sioux Falls, South Dakota-Minnesota, had the lowest rates at 1.7% each. El Centro, California, had the highest at 20.8%. Among the 56 large metros, Cleveland had the lowest rate at 1.9% and the biggest drop, down 1.4 points. Philadelphia fell 1.2 points to 3.6%. Hartford, Connecticut, had the largest increase among large metros, up 1.1 points to 5.0%, and New Haven and Waterbury-Shelton, Connecticut, had the largest increases of any metro at 1.2 points each.
Florida went the other way. Only 2 of the state’s 22 metros improved: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, down 0.4 points to 3.2%, and Sebastian-Vero Beach, down 0.1. Six were flat and 14 rose. Orlando rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, above the national rate. Tampa rose to 4.3% and Jacksonville to 4.5%, each up 0.1. Tallahassee and Gainesville rose 0.3 points each, and Wildwood-The Villages, at 7.6%, has the highest rate in the state. The Florida counts come from my tally of the BLS table.
The national picture is good, and most of the country is in better shape than a year ago. Florida stayed put while other metros improved, and Orlando now sits above the national average. The Florida changes are a tenth or two of a point, so I would not call this a Florida slowdown. My read is that the rest of the country is catching up while Florida levels off, and one year of data cannot confirm more than that.
If you’re hiring in Florida, you have a few more candidates to choose from than a year ago. If you’re job hunting here, expect a bit more competition than the national headlines suggest, and see what’s open right now.
