Workforce Megatrends Shaping 2026 & Entry-Level Hiring Crisis

Additional Resources

• Introducing the 2026 UKG Megatrends
• A Tale of Two Workforces: Who’s Using AI and Who’s Getting Left Behind
• The Entry-Level Hiring Crisis

Transcript

Pete Newsome: 0:00

Welcome to Cornering the Job Market 2026. Happy New Year, everyone. It’s great to be back sharing the latest job market news after a couple of weeks off. I believe this is going to be a wild year ahead from our moving target of an economy to the job market, which is in a state of evolution unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. And of course, AI that is changing, well, practically everything. So stick with me here. I’ll share the headlines as soon as they come out and keep you up to speed and ahead of the curve. Because while these changes are scary and they will be challenging, I believe it’s also a time of great opportunity for those who are paying attention. So let’s just get right into it for today. We have headlines from Forbes, Indeed’s Hiring Lab, and UKG. And I’ll break down each of those, but let’s start at the bottom. If you’re trying to break into the workforce right now, it can feel like you’re doing everything right and still getting nowhere. According to Forbes, the entry-level job market is showing increasingly weak signals for the year ahead. More than half of 183 employers surveyed by the National Association of Colleges and Employers rated the 2026 job market as poor or fair.

1:13

Those employers projected only a 1.6% increase in hiring for the class of 26. Forbes also points to a Yale School of Management gathering where 66% of executives surveyed plan to cut jobs or freeze hiring this year, with only about one out of three expecting to hire at all. Here’s where the map really stops working for job seekers who are early in their careers. Entry-level job postings aren’t truly entry-level at all. Forbes cites an analysis of 2,000 entry-level LinkedIn job posts showing 35% require prior relevant experience, and some require up to five years. In software and IT, more than 60% required three or more years. So we have a tight job market with now a higher bar on top of it. It’s inexcusable. Employers need to stop that crap immediately. There’s just no reason to do that. If you need to hire someone with experience, don’t call it entry-level. It’s that simple. And on top of that, there’s an increasing number of ghost jobs.

2:15

Forbes references a survey of more than 900 HR professionals where 45% said their organizations post jobs that aren’t real and they do it on a regular basis. 69% said their openings will close with candidates getting no response at all. This is also unacceptable, especially given how much technology is available right now. And if you’re in HR, you should know better. Shame on you for doing that. It just should not be happening. You have to know better. You should be doing better and be better in your job. It’s just no reason for this to be happening right now. Especially in a time of technology and AI, where every candidate can receive a response with little, in some cases, no effort on the part of a human. And I realize not every fan everyone’s a fan of AI, but this is a perfect use for it where the AI can auto-reply and it can let a candidate know why they’re not qualified and give them an opportunity to respond if something was missing on their application or resume.

3:15

So if you’re gonna take advantage of posting jobs electronically, be sure you’re using the tools that will allow you to do it efficiently and just a way that makes you decent. That’s not too much to ask. The US is in the middle at 43%. One pattern is consistent across countries. People tend to use AI personally more than professionally. They’ll experiment on their own, but workforce adoption is lagging. So what creates adoption at work? It’s a natural question to ask next. It’s employer engagement. In Ireland, 37% of workers report high employer encouragement compared to 12% in Japan. And across countries, encouragement lines up strongly with who actually adopts. It makes sense. The people who use AI are also the ones saying they need more AI training. Hiring Lab shows AI users consistently feel under trained more than non-users. So if you’re using AI, you see the benefit of it, you want to do more, and you feel like you need help doing more. But the most important group in this whole story is the disengaged segment.

4:44

Workers who don’t use AI and they don’t think they need training. So why would you need training if you’re not planning to use it? Hiring Lab says that’s between 16 and 40 percent, depending on the country, and the US is at 40%. It’s more common among older workers in manual production roles, so that makes sense. If you’re older, you’re gonna be slower to adapt and you’re not gonna want to use new technology as much. That’s been happening for years, that’s nothing new there. And it also makes sense that if you’re in a production role, you’re not at your desk, you’re probably not using AI as much personally anyway, so it’s going to feel foreign to you. Here’s what AI users are getting out of it, though, and this is this is really telling. And no surprise, but it should speak to anyone who’s listening to this and figure out how to take advantage of it. If you’re using it, you’re getting time back. That’s what AI is delivering. Hiring Lab reports that across countries, 81% to 96% of AI users say they see save at least one hour per day. And in Ireland, half of users say they save three or more hours daily.

5:49

Think about it, three or more hours a day from use of AI, people who are using it the most are getting the biggest benefits. That should speak volumes. And why this matters for the job market is time becomes capacity, and capacity turns into opportunity. If you’re saving an hour or more a day, that’s time to expand your knowledge and skills, take on new tasks and projects that will benefit you uh professionally and lead to what you want to do, right? So whether you’re working uh as an employee right now, somewhere that’ll help you uh get noticed, help lead to opportunities for advancement, or use it to um take you down the path of what you ultimately want to do, right? So, really for everyone, pay attention to this, please. Develop AI skills, take advantage of it. So if adoption is uneven and training needs are real, what are organizations supposed to do with that? Well, that brings us to UKG’s workforce trends. They just released their 2026 workforce trends with three big predictions: people first AI, more flexible talent ecosystems, and a shift from engagement to enablement.

7:00

First up is the people first AI imperative. UKG’s message is blunt. AI adoption fails without trust, understanding, and collaboration. UKG says two-thirds of organizations are culturally unprepared for AI transformation, and the research finds that only 53% of frontline employees believe their employer is preparing them for an AI-driven workplace. The prescription is cross-functional. Unite IT, HR, and communications and make frontline managers and educate frontline managers, make them vocal advocates because technology alone doesn’t drive adoption. People do. For employees, UKG frames the play as building targeted AI competencies that streamline workflows and align to industry and organizational needs. That’ll reinforce value and show a growth mindset. Makes sense. The second thing is what they call the talent ecosystem reality. UKG argues the talent shortage is accelerating, driven by shifting demographics, declining labor participation, and widening skills gaps, and that traditional hiring alone won’t solve it. On top of that, retention gets harder because replacing good people is more painful when qualified talent is scarce. We know that. UKG says its research shows work schedules and limited career growth are the top reasons frontline employees quit. Yes, employees are more demanding these days.

8:25

Companies have to figure that out. Their solution is what they refer to as an adaptive talent ecosystem that blends full-time, part-time, gig work, and AI-enabled roles, plus upscaling employees into for internal mobility purposes so they can be deployed in line with what the business uh the business needs most. A key lever is schedule flexibility, which will give employees more control over where, when, and how much they work. For employees, the implication is to build adaptable skills that translate across roles and departments as workforce models become more fluid. So, yeah, employees are definitely going to need to adapt. We just talked about that a few minutes ago in terms of just AI adoption as a whole. You need to embrace it, you need to accept these changes because the train has left, it’s moving out of the station, picking up speed. It’s left the station, actually, but it is picking up speed. You want to be on it. If you’re going to be an employee, you have to figure that out. And then the third uh thing they project is what they’re referring to as uh the employee enablement era. UKG says employee engagement remains dangerously low worldwide, and it’s costly.

9:42

They point to low trust and a lack of empowerment as the root cause. The research found two in five employees lack decision-making authority, even for basic tasks like solving customer issues or improving processes. Well, I mean, that’s where this trust comes in, right? You have to be able to trust your employees to make changes. Efficient companies do that, successful companies do that, empower your employees. Just makes sense. Uh, their recommendation is to move beyond engagement programs, you know, in quotes, toward true enablement. And because culture is built on trust and autonomy, and give employees access to tools, and they’re just going to succeed much better. They also add a data point from uh Great Place to Work research, where high trust cultures generate 42% more discretionary effort in both good times and recessions. So if your employees feel trusted, they’re gonna work harder. For employees, UKG encourages proactively identifying tools uh and resources needed and surfacing barriers so you can be seen as a problem solver, right? Not just a problem identifier, but a problem solver. I believe every employer wants that. And I also feel that employees don’t often take full advantage of that, right? So don’t complain. Deliver a solution.

11:07

Or you can complain, but make sure you have a solution that you’re ready to bring forward as well. Ideally, already solved the problem before you complain about it, but it’s easier said than done. But it look, it’s the the research shows that that is clearly what’s effective, and every leader, every manager that I know would say that is one of the things they value most in their team, in individual employees or those who don’t just complain but bring solutions or ideally will have already solved a problem before you even know about it. I mean, that is best case scenario for sure. So that’s you know what their research shows, their their employer playbook for 2026 in summary is that if you want um AI ROI, make sure it’s combined, a combination of trust, training, uh, and management leadership.

11:58

If you want retention, uh focus on scheduling flexibility and visible pathways for growth. And then if you want engagement, enable people to do work without friction. So there we are, your headlines for today. Thank you for listening. Again, it’s great to be back for the new year. But before we go, here’s your fun fact loggers have the most dangerous job in the US. That makes sense. Logging is pretty pretty damn dangerous. But the number two job, a little more common, roofers. Also makes a lot of sense. If you have to get up on a roof, be safe, don’t fall off, take care of yourself. And I’ll talk to you tomorrow. Have a great day.