MIT’s AI Exposure Index Shocks Economists & 2025 Job Growth

Additional Resources

• MIT’s Project Iceberg
• Just Two Sectors Account for 100% of US Job Growth in 2025
• 78% of IT Job Postings Already Require AI Skills
• Omnicom to Cut Over 4,000 Jobs

Transcript

Pete Newsome: 0:00

Today’s job market headlines include the two sectors responsible for all of the U.S. job growth this year, AI skill demand increasing in IT, and yet another massive job cut announcement, this time from the world’s largest advertising agency. But first, the impact of AI on the job market isn’t where everyone’s looking. It’s what we’re not seeing. MIT’s new Project Iceberg reveals that traditional labor metrics are missing most of AI’s real workforce impact. The disruption we see today, which is mostly in technology roles like software engineering, represents just 2.2% of national wage exposure. But when you look below the surface, AI has technical capability and a much larger share of tasks across administrative, financial, and professional service roles. MIT’s iceberg index shows these occupations have an average exposure of 11.7%, which is five times greater than the surface level technology disruption. Now that doesn’t mean 11.7% of jobs will disappear, but it does mean AI can technically perform a measurable share of tasks inside these roles that every company depends on.

1:09

Things like scheduling, uh documentation, reporting, coordination, compliance, information processing, a lot of tasks is the point. And the report also shows early career workers are already feeling this impact with a 13% decline in employment for ages of between 22 and 25 in AI-exposed occupations. So this is telling us that there’s a lot happening that we’re just not paying attention to yet. So it’s not the obvious AI impact, it’s the subtle things being incorporated into practically every aspect of corporate life right now. And it’s going to go way beyond that. And we know that it’s happening without this report even telling us. We know this is this is impacting young professionals, but a 13% decline in uh in employment for these young people in AI-exposed occupations, which again is nearly everything right now, is massive. That’s just huge. And this is only going to increase. So make sure you’re paying attention to how AI is impacting your job. It’s a theme that exists constantly in nearly every headline that I talk about these days.

2:21

Next, if you remove just two industries from the jobs report, the U.S. would have lost jobs this year. Bloomberg reports that in 2025, 100% of U.S. net job growth came from just two sectors: healthcare and social assistance, and leisure and hospitality. Together, they added 690,000 jobs, where every other major sector combined resulted in a net loss of roughly 6,000 jobs. This is telling us more of what we already know. Hiring is scarce, and we’re not yet seeing anything to indicate that there’s going to be a turnaround, at least not anytime soon. And I don’t have a magic bullet to offer here. Not for employers, not for job seekers. We know that service jobs are an area that is safe. You can go there. They’re also not the most highest paying jobs. We know that too. So the one thing that I fall back on right now is AI skills. Make sure you’re developing those. That brings us to our next headline, which is AI isn’t a specialized skill anymore. It’s rapidly becoming the new baseline for any technical career. According to CIO.com, 78% of IT job postings across the G7 countries now require AI skills. Seven of the 10 fastest growing IT roles have a direct AI component from software engineers to cloud and data roles.

3:40

They predict that by 2030, AI skills will be as fundamental as basic computer literacy is today. And I don’t think that it will take nearly that long. I’d cut that timeline in half at most, quite frankly. And so for anyone working in IT or trying to break in, AI fluency is no longer optional. It hasn’t been for a while, but it is certainly something that you can’t ignore. You can’t just be passive about. You have to fully embrace. And I don’t think this is necessarily bad news, since this is one of a few areas that doesn’t require formal education or training to earn a significant income. You can quite literally teach yourself. You can build with AI, you can create solutions, you can create a resume that will allow you to be very marketable just by how you spend time on your own. So the opportunity is there for those who are willing to put forth the effort and take advantage of it. And if you’re in technology, it’s a must. If you’re in any position right now in the corporate space, you should be teaching yourself how to leverage AI, how to improve your skills and make what you do today more efficient, more powerful by leveraging AI and learning it.

4:56

There’s so much out there and it’s all for free, right? I mean, you can pay for things, but you don’t have to. And that is a change in how job training, especially in the corporate world, has existed for decades and decades. And this is really a unique opportunity. So don’t let it pass you by. It’s evolving so rapidly. Embrace it and teach yourself. That’s the message. That’s the takeaway. And for the last headline today, after acquiring interpublic group, Omnicon is cutting more than 4,000 jobs and retiring multiple legacy agencies. Most of the cuts will be administrative and leadership roles as the company looks to exceed what they projected to be a $750 million savings as a result of the merger. This is a major restructuring moment for the advertising world and for obviously anyone who’s been part of this just massive organization. And there’s never a good time for employees to be let go as a result of something like this through no fault of their own. But unfortunately, this is an especially bad time. So best wishes and good luck to any of those who will be impacted.

6:04

And if you haven’t been notified yet, if if you’re in an administrative role, assume you will be and get your resume out there. Start taking steps to find your next job. Don’t sit back and wait. Again, good luck to everyone who um is going to be getting that news. And before we close, here’s a fun fact from today in history that on December 1st, 1913, Ford Motor Company introduced the world’s first moving assembly line for mass production of an entire automobile. This happened at its Highland Park plant in Michigan. And so what I find interesting about this, well over 100 years ago now, that automation was already starting to take jobs. I don’t know the details, but I have to assume that it reduced the number of people needed to make a car, the actual number of humans, by a significant margin once this full automation uh and assembly line kicked in. So I I shouldn’t call it automation then, but it was the premise of what was happening, and companies will always do that. So my big message to employees always is don’t take anything for granted. Don’t take your job for granted.

7:14

Don’t take job security for granted, no matter how much you value your employer and you think that they value you. I’m sure that they do. But ultimately, companies will seek ways to become more efficient, to do more with less. And in this age of AI, it is just happening faster than we’ve ever seen in history. Not just our lifetimes, but in all of history. So uh that’s supposed to be a fun fact. I say this a lot. I want it to be fun, but right now there’s just so much that isn’t fun going on in the job market right now that I can’t help but always bring uh so many of these headlines back to the one thing that is AI’s coming, it’s coming quickly. Don’t let it surprise you. Learn to embrace it, learn to leverage it, and that’ll give you the best chance for success. So good luck to everyone out there. Um, have a great rest of your day. Thanks for listening, and I look forward to talking to you tomorrow.