The Job Market Stopped Getting Worse – What “Stable” Actually Looks Like Right Now
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The Indeed Job Postings Index sits at 102.4, just 2.4% above pre-pandemic levels and among the lowest readings since spring 2021. Year-over-year postings are still negative, down 3.4%, but that’s an improvement from -9.6% in April 2025. The sector split tells a more nuanced story. Healthcare and production/manufacturing postings remain well above pre-pandemic baselines. Software development and IT sit roughly 30% below. The exception within tech: AI-linked software development jobs are up 14% year-over-year, and 47% of all software development postings now mention AI. 5.4% of all job postings mention AI, well above the prior peak of 3.3% in 2022. The market is splitting in real time: if your skills connect to AI, demand is accelerating. If they don’t, demand is shrinking.
The number that deserves the most attention is the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio: 0.9. For the first time since the post-pandemic recovery, there are fewer open jobs than unemployed workers. In 2022, there were two openings for every unemployed person. That ratio has now inverted. Combined with a quits rate of 2.0% (back to 2015 levels), the message is consistent: workers don’t feel confident enough to leave, and employers aren’t adding new seats fast enough to absorb everyone looking.
The wage picture makes it worse. Posted wage growth has slowed to 2.3% year-over-year while CPI inflation has reaccelerated to 3.8%, driven partly by energy price increases from the conflict in Iran. Real purchasing power is shrinking. Workers are getting raises. Those raises aren’t keeping up with what things cost. That’s the same pattern the BLS confirmed for Q1: real wage growth of barely 0.1% for the full year. The headline unemployment rate of 4.3% remains above the 2019 average of 3.7%, and the information sector’s layoff rate has doubled over the past year to 2.4%, the sharpest increase of any sector.
Layoff Watch: LinkedIn and Cisco Cut Thousands Despite Record Revenue
Two more major tech companies announced layoffs this week, and both fit the same pattern we’ve been documenting all year: revenue growing, headcount shrinking.
LinkedIn is cutting approximately 875 employees, roughly 5% of its global workforce of more than 17,500, as it reorganizes teams and redirects investment toward growth areas. The Microsoft-owned platform reported 12% year-over-year revenue growth in its most recent quarter and recently crossed $5 billion in a single quarter for the first time. A source told Reuters that AI is not directly behind these cuts. Whether or not that’s technically accurate, the outcome for affected workers is the same: jobs at a profitable, growing company are being eliminated. Teams across LinkedIn’s Global Business Organization, marketing, engineering, and product divisions were notified Wednesday. LinkedIn is also closing its Graz, Austria office. Tech layoffs in 2026 have now topped 103,000, approaching the full-year 2025 total of roughly 124,000 with more than half the year still ahead.
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Weekly Claims Rise to 211,000, Still Well Below Last Year
Initial jobless claims rose 12,000 to 211,000 for the week ending May 9, from a revised 199,000 the prior week. The four-week moving average edged up slightly to 203,750. Continuing claims rose to 1,782,000 for the week ending May 2, up 24,000, with the insured unemployment rate ticking up to 1.2% from a revised 1.1%.
The year-over-year picture provides important context. Initial claims in the comparable week last year were 226,000; this week’s reading is 15,000 lower. Insured unemployment was 1,884,000 a year ago versus 1,782,000 now. The four-week average of 203,750 sits well below the year-ago average of 229,250. The headline is up week-over-week, but the trend is meaningfully better than 2025. Mass layoffs from tech companies are real and significant for those affected, but they represent a narrow slice of the broader workforce. The claims data continues to confirm that most workers who have jobs are keeping them.
Michigan added 1,696 initial claims this week, with the state specifically citing layoffs in the management of companies and enterprises industry; notable given the broader trend of organizational consolidation happening across sectors. California added 2,144 with no comment provided. Rhode Island posted the largest drop at -1,831. The highest insured unemployment rates remain concentrated in the same regional cluster: Rhode Island (2.3%), Massachusetts (2.2%), New Jersey (2.2%), Washington (2.1%), and California (2.0%).
Frequently Asked Questions
The Indeed Job Postings Index sits at 102.4, just 2.4% above pre-pandemic levels. Real wages are falling as posted wage growth of 2.3% trails inflation at 3.8%. The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio dropped to 0.9, meaning there are now fewer open jobs than unemployed workers for the first time since the recovery.
LinkedIn is reorganizing teams and redirecting investment toward growth areas, cutting roughly 875 employees (about 5% of its workforce) despite 12% revenue growth and a record quarterly high of $5 billion. A source told Reuters AI is not directly behind the cuts, though the company’s parent Microsoft has been tightening headcount across multiple divisions.
Cisco’s CFO described it as a resource reallocation, not a cost-cutting move, redirecting investment toward AI, silicon, optics, and security while scaling back legacy networking roles. Q3 FY2026 revenue hit a record $15.84 billion and AI infrastructure orders are tracking toward $9 billion for the full year. The restructuring will cost up to $1 billion in charges.
Initial claims came in at 211,000 for the week ending May 9, up 12,000 from the prior week. The four-week average sits at 203,750, well below the year-ago average of 229,250. Despite high-profile tech layoffs, the broader claims data shows most workers are keeping their jobs.
