Side-by-side charts showing a red downward trend line and a green upward trend line

The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index declined slightly in March to 105.72, with five of its eight components moving in the wrong direction. The number worth focusing on: the share of Americans who say jobs are hard to get climbed to 21.5%, a five-percentage-point increase from a year ago. One in five Americans now feels that way about the market, which tracks with what we’ve been seeing in the broader data for months. Initial unemployment claims did decline in March, which is genuinely positive, and temporary help employment ticked up, a signal I watch closely given its track record as a leading indicator of where hiring is heading.

Conference Board economist Mitchell Barnes put it plainly: job seekers continue to face a challenging market overall. The economy has remained more resilient than expected, but rising geopolitical uncertainty is giving employers another reason to stay cautious about adding headcount. Temporary staffing, in particular, is worth watching. It has historically been one of the most reliable early signals of directional change in the labor market, and three consecutive months of slight improvement there is worth noting, even if it’s not yet enough to call a trend.

Employee Confidence Improved in March, With One Glaring Exception

The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index rose more than two percentage points in March from February, a welcome reversal after months of decline. Glassdoor Chief Economist Daniel Zhao noted that worker confidence appears largely unaffected by the U.S.-Iran war so far, likely because higher energy prices and inflation haven’t fully filtered through the economy yet. Energy, mining, and utilities saw the biggest monthly gain of any sector, up three percentage points, which makes sense given that higher fuel prices are a near-term tailwind for that industry.

Tech is the outlier that deserves its own sentence. The sector posted a 7.1 percentage point decline year over year, the largest drop of any industry in the index’s history. AI investment and data center spending have driven slow hiring and waves of layoffs, and those cuts have taken a real toll on morale. Entry-level tech workers are particularly stuck. Glassdoor says entry-level confidence has been essentially flat for three years, a pattern that shows up across every data source we track. Employers who can offer real career advancement paths and continue bringing in early-career talent are positioning themselves well. Right now, very few are doing it.

ADP Shows Three Straight Weeks of Private Hiring Improvement

ADP’s weekly employment pulse for the four weeks ending March 21 shows private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs per week, the third consecutive week of improvement and the strongest single-week reading of 2026 so far. The progression is notable: 9,000 in late February, then 10,000, then 15,250, now 26,000. That’s a real acceleration, not noise.

The usual caveats apply: ADP flags these numbers as preliminary and subject to revision, and the monthly ADP report earlier this week showed a more complicated picture with small businesses carrying essentially all of the growth while larger employers pulled back. Three weeks of improvement are encouraging but not a trend. The situation in the Middle East also introduces genuine uncertainty about what the next 90 days look like for hiring. For job seekers, the window appears to be widening slightly, which is worth something, even if it could change quickly.

In the Gig Economy, Equal Access Doesn’t Mean Equal Pay

New analysis from Revelio Labs using Upwork data finds that women make up roughly 63% of freelancer accounts on the platform, a share that has held steady since 2022. They land projects at the same rate as men, and client ratings are virtually identical: 42% of men earn a perfect 5.0 rating, compared to about 41% of women.

The gap shows up in pricing. Men post higher hourly rates across all experience levels, even with comparable ratings and project counts. By the time a freelancer has completed ten or more projects, men list roughly $5 per hour more than women in equivalent roles, and that gap widens with experience rather than closing. Revelio attributes this to confidence and risk tolerance: women may price conservatively to secure steady work, then anchor at that lower baseline as their career builds. Over a full year, $5 per hour translates to roughly $10,000. The practical takeaway is straightforward: if you do gig or freelance work, review your rates regularly and benchmark against the market, not against what you’ve always charged. The price you set early tends to stick.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the job market getting better or worse in 2026?

The picture is mixed. The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index declined in March, and the share of Americans who say jobs are hard to find has risen five percentage points over the past year. At the same time, ADP’s weekly data showed three straight weeks of hiring improvement, and initial unemployment claims declined. The market isn’t collapsing, but it isn’t recovering in any meaningful way for most job seekers either.

Why is tech employee confidence so low?

Glassdoor’s index shows tech posted the largest year-over-year drop of any industry (7.1 percentage points), the biggest decline in the index’s history. Years of layoffs tied to AI investment and restructuring have eroded worker confidence even as corporate revenues have remained strong. The disconnect between company financial performance and employee job security is what’s driving the morale problem.

Is there a gender pay gap in freelance work?

Yes, according to Revelio Labs’ analysis of Upwork data. Men and women land projects at the same rate and earn nearly identical client ratings, but men consistently post higher hourly rates. After ten or more completed projects, the gap reaches roughly $5 per hour, about $10,000 annually, and widens further with experience rather than narrowing.

What does the ADP weekly jobs data show?

For the four weeks ending March 21, private employers added an average of 26,000 jobs per week, the third straight week of improvement and the strongest reading of 2026 so far. The numbers are preliminary and subject to revision, so one positive stretch doesn’t rewrite the broader narrative, but the direction is at least moving the right way.

View Full Transcript

Conference Board ETI declined in March: 5 of 8 components moving in the wrong direction

Welcome back to Cornering the Job Market. Today’s workforce news and headlines include new data from Glassdoor that shows employee confidence improved in March, with one notable exception. The technology industry just posted the largest year-over-year decline the index has ever measured. Also, ADP’s latest hiring numbers showed three straight weeks of improvement, and new research reveals a persistent gender pay gap in the gig economy.

We will get into all of that, but first, the Conference Board released its employment trends index for March, with five of the eight components moving in the wrong direction. The number that really jumps out is the share of consumers who say jobs are hard to get. It climbed 21.5%, which is a five percentage point increase from a year ago. One in five Americans now feeling that way about the job market, of course, isn’t good to see, but it’s not surprising either. We know that perception continues to shift in the wrong direction, and for good reason. Also, fewer small businesses reported positions they couldn’t fill, and the share of involuntary part-time workers, who are people who want full-time hours but can’t get them, continues to remain elevated.

Now, on the positive side, initial unemployment claims declined and temporary help employment ticked up slightly. Conference board economist Mitchell Barnes said job seekers continue to face a challenging market. Overall, the U.S. economy has remained surprisingly resilient, but rising geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to ongoing employer hesitancy to add more workers. The bottom line is it doesn’t really matter what the headlines say. The BLS can put out a report saying that we added lots of jobs, but if that’s not consistent with what people are actually experiencing, then those numbers just don’t matter. One thing I do want to touch on is the temporary staffing number.

I’ve owned a staffing company for 20 years, and I have always found temporary hiring to be a leading indicator of where the market is heading. Through the dips, through good times, it is very consistent. So that’s a number I’ll continue to watch closely. But at this particular point in time, I do expect the situation in the Middle East to be the biggest factor in determining market direction for the foreseeable future.

Glassdoor confidence improved overall, but tech posted its worst YoY drop on record

And that relates to our next story where employee confidence improved in March according to the Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index. The share of employees reporting a positive six-month business outlook rose more than two percentage points from February. Glassdoor’s chief economist Daniel Zhao notes that employee confidence appears largely unaffected by the US-Iran war so far, likely because higher energy prices and inflation haven’t filtered through the economy yet.

But looking at where things were in March, energy mining and utilities saw the biggest monthly gain up three percentage points. Higher fuel prices may actually be helping that sector in the short term. Tech remains the worst performer over the past year with the largest decline of any industry on the index. AI investment and data center spending leading to slow hiring and layoffs have all contributed to damaging morale in that sector. By seniority, entry-level workers remain stuck, which we’re seeing in all recent data. Glassdoor says entry-level workers feel frozen out of career advancement opportunities. I’d go even further to say they’re being frozen out of the job market overall. Entry-level confidence has been flat for three years now.

So employers who can offer career growth paths and continue to hire young workers are really setting themselves up well for the future. So if you are an employer, that’s something you should focus on right now.

ADP Weekly Pulse: 3 straight weeks of improvement, best week of 2026

So consumers say jobs are hard to find and workers are uncertain about their employer’s outlook right now. You’d think hiring must be falling off a cliff, but the ADP data tells a slightly different story. ADP’s weekly employment data shows the third straight week of improvement in private sector hiring with 26,000 jobs added. The pace of job growth has increased significantly since the start of the year, and this marks the single biggest week in 2026. Three consecutive weeks of improvement is encouraging, but it’s all perilous right now. And of course, ADP flags that these numbers are preliminary and could change as new data comes in.

We all know the drill at this point all too well, don’t we? But the labor market is still cooling compared to where we were a year ago. Employers are hiring, but they’re selective about it. So if you’re a job seeker, the window is open and it is widening a little bit, at least it seems to be. And again, that could all change at any moment and probably will right now, based on where we are today and what’s supposed to happen tonight. If you’ve been watching the news at all, I’m sure you’re aware of what’s going on. But for right now, we’ll take any positivity where we can get it because we need it. 

Revelio Labs: Women make up 63% of Upwork accounts, but earn $5/hour less

And finally, some new research on the gig economy where access is equal but outcomes aren’t. Women make up about 63% of freelancer accounts on Upwork, according to new analysis from Mervilio Labs. That share is held steady since 2022. Women land projects at the same rate as men, and client ratings are virtually identical. 42% of men earn a perfect five compared to about 41% of women. But the gap shows up in how they’re pricing. Men post higher hourly rates at every experience level, even with comparable ratings and project counts.

By 10 or more completed projects, men list roughly $5 per hour more than women in equivalent roles. And that gap widens with experience. Ravelio points to confidence and risk tolerance as the drivers. Women may price conservatively to guarantee steady work, then anchor at that lower baseline as their career builds. About $5 an hour is a lot. That equates to around $10,000 a year. So if you’re doing freelance or gig work, the practical takeaway from this should be straightforward. Review your rates regularly and benchmark against the market, not against your gender, because the price you set early tends to stick.

Fun fact: Working near others boosts focus for people with ADHD

Now here’s a fun fact before we close. This is a new term to me, body doubling. Where working in the presence of someone else, even if they aren’t helping, boosts focus for people with ADHD. I’ve heard of body doubles in movies and TV shows, but body doubling, that’s just sounds weird to me. I have not heard it before. Maybe you have, hopefully not. We could all learn something new together today, perhaps. But those are all of our headlines. That is it for today. I will be back tomorrow. Thank you for listening. Please like, subscribe, share with anyone who you think might be interested, and I will talk to you soon.

A closeup of Pete Newsome, looking into the camera and smiling.

About Pete Newsome

Pete Newsome is the President of 4 Corner Resources, the staffing and recruiting firm he founded in 2005. 4 Corner is a member of the American Staffing Association and TechServe Alliance and has been Clearly Rated's top-rated staffing company in Central Florida for seven consecutive years. Recent awards and recognition include being named to Forbes' Best Recruiting and Best Temporary Staffing Firms in America, Business Insider's America's Top Recruiting Firms, The Seminole 100, and The Golden 100. He hosts Cornering The Job Market, a daily show covering real-time U.S. job market data, trends, and news, and The AI Worker YouTube Channel, where he explores artificial intelligence's impact on employment and the future of work. Connect with Pete on LinkedIn