Goldman Sachs Says Oil Prices Could Cost 10,000 Jobs a Month
Leisure and hospitality takes the sharpest hit in Goldman’s baseline scenario, with that sector projected to lose around 5,000 jobs per month through Q4. Retail, manufacturing, and education and health services are also in the crosshairs. That last one deserves specific attention: healthcare has been the single pillar holding up private-sector job growth for the better part of two years. Any forecast that puts pressure on that sector changes the math considerably.
Goldman’s economists noted that the upward pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring rather than a surge in layoffs, concentrated in industries most exposed to weaker consumer spending. Historically, rising oil prices have triggered hiring booms in the energy sector, but Goldman says that dynamic is largely gone. Oil extraction has become efficient enough that the industry no longer needs to staff up the way it once did when prices rise. That removes what used to be a reliable counterweight.
The DOL Just Proposed a Rule That Would Raise the Cost of Every H-1B Hire
The U.S. Department of Labor has issued a proposed rule that would overhaul how prevailing wages are calculated for H-1B, H-1B1, E-3, and permanent labor certification (PERM) visa programs. The proposed change would tie wage floors to statistically grounded percentile thresholds from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey, essentially ensuring that foreign workers in these programs are paid what the actual market pays, not an artificially suppressed floor that has, for years, made hiring foreign labor a cost-cutting strategy rather than a talent strategy.
The DOL’s own language in the announcement is unusually direct. Existing prevailing wage levels have, in their words, been set “dramatically below the market rates which many American workers receive, particularly entry-level Americans and recent college graduates in science, technology, engineering, and math fields.” The program, as the rule acknowledges, has been distorted by companies using it to replace existing American workers with cheaper foreign labor, which is the opposite of what it was designed to do. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer said plainly that the continued abuse of the H-1B program by certain bad actors will no longer be tolerated.
It’s worth being clear that this is a proposed rule, not a final one. Comments are due 60 days after the March 27, 2026 publication in the Federal Register. But the direction is significant, and the framing from the DOL signals genuine intent to follow through. If implemented, the practical effect is straightforward: using visa programs as a wage arbitrage tool becomes less economically attractive. Companies that genuinely need specialized talent not available in the domestic market will still be able to hire it; they’ll just have to pay for it at actual market rates. That’s exactly the kind of structural shift that’s been needed for a long time, particularly for early-career STEM workers who have absorbed the competitive pressure of artificially low-wage foreign hires for years.
Skilled Trades Workers Are More Optimistic Than the Broader Workforce
While the broader job market continues to send mixed signals, workers in skilled trades are telling a very different story, and Aerotek’s Q1 2026 Job Seeker Survey of more than 3,500 applicants in manufacturing, logistics, construction, and skilled trades captures it clearly.
Eighty-three percent of skilled trades professionals say they would recommend their career to the next generation. Fifty-one percent view their field more positively than they did five years ago, and 66% believe they’ll gain even more respect and demand over the next five years. That’s not wishful thinking, as we reported earlier this week, demand for skilled trades roles is growing three times faster than professional roles, and time-to-hire for electricians and HVAC technicians now exceeds that of software developers. The workers inside these fields have apparently been paying attention.
Compare that to the ADP data we covered recently, which found only 22% of workers in the broader global workforce feel confident their job is safe. In skilled trades, the Aerotek survey shows roughly four in five expressing confidence in their ability to succeed. That’s not a coincidence; it reflects the structural reality of a sector where demand is surging, supply is shrinking, and AI simply cannot replicate what these workers do.
Two other findings from the survey are worth noting. First, 41% of job seekers in trades have zero interest in moving into management, and 19% of those already in supervisory roles say they’d rather go back to being individual contributors. Management has its appeal until you’re actually doing it. Second, 22% of skilled trades workers took on a second job in the past year, up from 20% the year before. The majority cite financial need, which is the reality. But 35% are taking second jobs specifically to learn new skills, and 36% are doing it to gain experience in a new industry. That level of intentional self-investment, in a workforce already in high demand, is the kind of signal employers looking to fill these roles should take seriously.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Goldman’s analysis points to leisure and hospitality as the hardest hit, with the sector projected to lose around 5,000 jobs per month through Q4. Retail, manufacturing, and health services face additional pressure. Notably, this time higher oil prices won’t trigger the offsetting energy sector hiring boom that historically cushioned these impacts, because extraction efficiency has eliminated the need to staff up when prices rise.
The proposed rule would replace the existing prevailing wage methodology, which has historically produced floors well below actual market rates, with thresholds tied to BLS occupational wage data. The effect would be to bring what employers pay foreign workers on H-1B and related visas closer to what they pay similarly qualified American workers. It’s a proposed rule, not yet final, with a 60-day public comment period.
Companies using these visa programs to hire genuinely specialized talent would face higher minimum wage requirements, but if they’re already paying market rates, the practical impact is limited. The rule is designed to close the gap exploited by employers who use the program specifically because it allows them to pay below-market wages, essentially eliminating cheap labor as a competitive advantage for those companies.
Structural supply and demand. Demand for skilled trades roles has grown three times faster than professional roles since 2022, while the pipeline of young workers entering the field is actually shrinking. Workers inside these industries can see that dynamic clearly; they’re watching their skills become more valuable, not less. The data backs their optimism: time-to-fill for these roles now exceeds that of software developers.
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Goldman Sachs: Oil prices could cut 10,000 jobs per month through 2026
Welcome back to Cornering the Job Market. Today’s workforce news and headlines include a new survey that’s focused on what skilled trades workers have to say. And it’s very different than a survey that came out earlier this week that was focused on the broader job market. So I’ll share the highlights from that. Also, the Department of Labor just proposed a rule that could change the cost of every H1B hire in America. This is good news. I look forward to talking about that as well.
But first, Goldman Sachs said higher oil prices could shave roughly 10,000 jobs a month from U.S. payroll growth through the end of 2026. Goldman now expects unemployment to hit 4.6% by the end of Q3, which is up from 4.4% last month. So that is this is bad news. The hardest hit sector is going to be leisure and hospitality. Their baseline has that sector losing about 5,000 jobs a month through Q4. Retail manufacturing and education health services are also in the crosshair. So health services, as we know, healthcare is carrying the job market.
So if they’re forecasting a change in trajectory there, that’s something that everyone should pay attention to. Not that we can do anything about it. I wish we could, but it is worth being aware of what’s happening. The bank’s economist wrote the upward pressure on unemployment primarily reflects lower hiring with a smaller contribution from higher layoffs in industries most exposed to weaker consumer spending. Now I’m sure you’ve seen the oil prices as they’ve been going up and down. It’s in the news constantly. Historically, higher prices have meant a hiring boom in the energy sector, but Goldman says that’s not going to happen this time because oil extraction has become so efficient that the industry doesn’t need to staff up the way it used to.
And all of this is happening on top of a job market that is already in rough shape. We’ve been heading in the wrong direction. We added just 181,000 jobs all of last year, which is down from 1.4 million the year before. And the recent job reports have been a decline. So this labor market is already pretty pretty stretched. We’re not in a good trajectory at all right now. So I’ll just say it for all of us. I’m sure everyone would agree. Let’s just hope all of this ends soon and we get back to stable prices and can get our job market heading back in a good direction.
The DOL’s proposed H-1B wage rule: What it says, what it would change, and why it matters
Now for our next story, let’s turn to the Department of Labor and what they’re trying to do to help the American workforce. And if you can believe it, I’m going to commend a federal agency for the second time in a week. That has to be a record, but I like what they’re doing here is they look to overhaul how wages are calculated for H1, E3, and permanent labor certification visa programs. The issue is that the prevailing wage levels have been, in I’ll use their own words, set dramatically below the market rates that American workers earn for the same jobs.
If you’ve been paying attention at all to what’s going on, you know that entry-level workers are suffering right now, and recent STEM graduates have been hit the hardest. And that is who is impacted by cheap foreign labor. And that is not what the H1 visa program was intended to do. Not at all. Companies have been abusing it for a long time. This new methodology will tie wages to BLS percentile thresholds from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics Survey. In other words, the floor will go up and companies won’t be able to get around it. According to the Secretary of Labor, Lori Chavez de Riemer, the continued abuse of the H1B program by certain bad actors will no longer be tolerated. I really hope she means that and they stick with it.
What’s going on effectively is that DOL is trying to make it so all this cheap foreign labor that’s taken so many jobs from American workers for so long can no longer be cheap. And that is it, right? If you truly need someone with expertise that can’t be found in America, then you shouldn’t mind paying for it. But that is not how this system has been used for decades now, as companies have just been abusing it, right? I think that’s the third time I’ve used this word. Secretary used it. There’s no other way to describe it. It’s just been an awful, awful thing for a long time. And I really do hope that they stay committed to this and don’t take their foot off the gas because it’s one thing to talk about it, it’s another thing to execute. So let’s see over time if the Department of Labor can really see this through to the end. I hope they do.
Aerotek Q1 2026: Skilled trades workers are among the most optimistic in the workforce
And then moving on to our final story for today, AeroTech surveyed more than 3,500 job seekers in manufacturing, logistics, construction, and skilled trades. And from that survey, there were three things that jumped out at me. First, skilled trades optimism is surging. 83% of skilled trades professionals would recommend their career to the next generation. How cool is that? I love seeing it. 51% view those careers more positively than they did five years ago. And 66% believe they’ll gain even more respect and demand over the next five years. That’s already happening. I agree with them 100%.
And look, when 83% of the people doing the work would recommend it to the next generation, that’s about as strong an endorsement as you could find in any profession. And for good reason, the demand is up, supply is already short, and we know that is only going to increase. As I reported on yesterday, there are more people leaving the profession than entering it. Even though everyone’s aware of how much demand there is, we’re just not seeing people move into that skilled trades area as fast as we’re going to need for the future. So really cool to see. And contrary to what I talked about yesterday in an ADP report, where only one out of five in the broader job market express confidence in their job.
Where here, four out of five express confidence in their ability to succeed in skilled trades. The next thing that jumped out is that 41% of job seekers have zero plans to pursue management. They don’t want it. And 19% of people currently in a management role in skilled trades say they don’t want to be in a supervisory role for their next job. They want to just be an individual contributor. I get that. Management seems glamorous to a lot of people until they’re actually in the role. So one out of five don’t want it. They don’t want to continue down that path. So I thought that was interesting from this survey. And the third thing is that 22% worked multiple jobs in the past year, which was up from 20% mid-last year. 85% cite the need for extra income.
But the interesting part is that 35% are taking a second job just to learn new skills, and 36% are doing it to get experience in a new industry. So I love that level of commitment and taking steps in the right direction to better yourself, invest in yourself. So while no one wants a second job, the fact that so many of them are doing it for the right reason, not the majority, yes, unfortunately, too many still need extra income. But to see a lot of people just looking forward and trying to set themselves up for a better professional life, I love seeing that. So I will end on that today.
Fun fact: Furniture tester is a real job, but it probably doesn’t pay well
But here’s a fun fact before we go there’s a job that’s called furniture tester. Did you know that? A furniture tester spends all day sitting on chairs and lying on sofas to test their durability. I could do that. That’s not a bad gig, huh? I don’t think it pays very well though. Probably not. But if you want to pursue it, the furniture tester route is an option. So thank you for listening. Please like, subscribe, share with anyone who you think might be interested. And I look forward to talking to you next week.
