More American Workers Are Struggling Than Thriving For the First Time Ever
That 2022 comparison matters for context; it was the strongest job market in recent memory, so some pullback was inevitable. But the direction of travel here is what’s worth paying attention to. The share of workers who say now is a good time to find quality employment has fallen to just 28%, a 42-point collapse from 70% in mid-2022. Even accounting for how exceptional that peak was, a number this low reflects something more than a return to normal.
What Gallup describes as the “Great Detachment” captures the tension at the center of this data. Despite the pessimism, 51% of workers are either actively looking for a new job or watching for opportunities, near the highest level Gallup has recorded since 2015. Yet among those searching, 49% say the experience has been negative, and more than half of recent applicants couldn’t land a single interview. Workers want out. The market isn’t letting them leave. Gallup’s Sarah Fioroni put it plainly: the workforce is restless but largely stuck. Specifically, 30% of workers say they feel stuck in their current role. When asked why, the answers were almost entirely financial; 69% can’t afford to lose their current pay or benefits, and 51% say they can’t find a comparable position elsewhere.
The consequences of that dynamic are showing up in engagement numbers. Employee engagement has dropped to 31%, its lowest level in a decade, representing a loss of 3.2 million engaged workers year over year. People staying in jobs they want to leave, with nowhere better to go, tend not to bring their best. If you’re an employer, this is the moment to pay close attention. Workers staying out of financial necessity will move the second something better opens up. Surveying your team, acknowledging what they’re experiencing, and actively working on retention isn’t optional right now; it’s the difference between being caught off guard and getting ahead of it. If you’re a worker ready to make a move when the right role appears, we can help you find it. If you’re building a team, let’s talk about what that looks like in this market.
One Sector Is Generating More Job Growth Than the Entire Rest of the Economy
New research from the ADP Research Institute provides a striking illustration of just how lopsided U.S. job growth has become. Between 2023 and January 2025, the education and health services supersector accounted for more than 75% of all private-sector job gains. By January 2025, that figure had climbed to 109%, meaning healthcare was not only generating all net private-sector job growth, but it was also making up for losses everywhere else.
Healthcare comprises about 88% of that supersector’s employment, and its dominance is structural, not cyclical. Since 2000, healthcare has grown from 13% to nearly 20% of all private-sector employment. ADP projects it could become the single largest private-sector employment category within roughly a decade. The fastest growth is in outpatient and home-based care, with the home health aide workforce expanding to nearly 3.9 million workers, though these roles remain among the lowest-paid in the sector.
The force behind all of this is demographics. Approximately 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. Baby boomers are simultaneously shrinking the prime-age labor supply and driving up demand for care services. As ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted, unlike past labor market upheavals, this one is being driven by aging, not automation. That math doesn’t change anytime soon. For job seekers trying to identify a durable path, healthcare offers some of the clearest long-term signals of any sector in the economy. The most in-demand healthcare roles and the hiring trends shaping the sector are worth understanding now, before those openings get more competitive.
The ADP Weekly Pulse: Hiring Has Stalled
The latest ADP National Employment Report pulse shows U.S. private employers added an average of 10,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending March 7, essentially flat from the prior week. Weekly gains had peaked at 15,500 in mid-February before pulling back steadily. At the current run rate, the labor market is producing just enough to tread water.
That’s the broader picture in one number. The February BLS report already showed the toll a flat hiring environment is taking on real job-seekers, and the weekly pulse data since then hasn’t shifted the narrative. Healthcare is the one consistent pocket of activity. Outside of it, the market remains largely stuck, which is exactly what the Gallup data above reflects in how workers feel day to day.
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750 Executives Weighed In on What AI Is Actually Doing to Jobs
A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research, based on a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives, asked a direct question: What is AI actually doing to jobs inside your company right now? The answer cuts against some of the more dramatic predictions circulating in the market. Half of companies surveyed said AI will not replace any roles or responsibilities. Another 6% are unsure. Only 44% anticipate some degree of job replacement, and in aggregate, total employment is expected to decline by less than 0.4% due to AI in 2026. That’s roughly half a million workers in real terms, which isn’t trivial, but as a share of the workforce, it’s far smaller than a lot of the AI displacement rhetoric would suggest.
The researchers also identified what they’re calling a productivity paradox. Executives consistently report feeling more productive when using AI tools, but the revenue numbers haven’t caught up yet. It mirrors something Nobel laureate Robert Solow famously observed about computers in 1987: you could see the technology everywhere except in the productivity statistics. The NBER team found the same pattern playing out with AI today. Perceived gains are real; measured gains are still materializing.
Where the impact is already showing up most clearly is in the composition of work rather than the headcount itself. Routine clerical roles are declining while demand for skilled technical positions is rising. That’s consistent with what we’ve tracked across multiple reports this year; AI isn’t eliminating jobs so much as reshaping which ones exist and what they require.
Tech Employment Shrank in 2025, but the 2026 Outlook Is Better
CompTIA’s State of the Tech Workforce 2026 confirms something a lot of tech workers have been feeling: net tech employment in the U.S. actually declined in 2025, dropping by 33,624 jobs. That’s a real contraction. The 2026 projection, however, is meaningfully more optimistic: CompTIA forecasts growth of approximately 128,000 tech jobs this year.
The wage premium for tech work remains substantial. The median tech occupation wage is $112,805, more than double the median wage across all U.S. occupations, and that gap continues to widen. The fastest-growing categories projected for 2026 are data science, data analysis, database roles, and machine learning, fields with a direct connection to AI investment. AI hiring specifically is accelerating: employer job postings requiring AI skills topped 275,000 active listings in January 2026, up 81% year over year. Notably, 35% of those AI job postings don’t specify a minimum experience level, which means hands-on, self-directed experience is increasingly being treated as equivalent to formal credentials.
Looking further out, CompTIA projects the tech workforce will grow at twice the rate of the overall U.S. workforce over the next decade. That growth will be concentrated; data scientists, cybersecurity analysts and engineers, and software developers lead the projections. For anyone navigating a tech career or building a technical team, the takeaway is consistent with what the data has been showing for months: generalist roles are under pressure, specialized skills carry a significant premium, and AI fluency is becoming the baseline expectation rather than a differentiator.
Frequently Asked Questions
Gallup attributes it to a combination of declining job market confidence, record-low engagement, and workers feeling financially unable to leave jobs they’re dissatisfied with. The 42-point drop in job market optimism since 2022 is the largest Gallup has recorded in four years, and it reflects a real deterioration in the market’s ability to absorb workers who want to make a move.
Healthcare is responsible for virtually all net private-sector job growth in the U.S. at this point, driven by an aging population and growing demand for home and outpatient care. ADP data shows the education and health services supersector briefly hit 109% of all private-sector job gains, meaning it was offsetting losses in every other sector combined.
Based on the NBER survey of nearly 750 executives, not yet. Total AI-driven employment decline is projected at less than 0.4% for 2026. The more immediate impact is compositional; routine roles are declining while demand for skilled technical work is rising. The full productivity and headcount impact is still working its way through the data.
Data science, machine learning, database roles, and cybersecurity top CompTIA’s growth projections for 2026. AI-specific skills are the fastest-moving segment, with active job postings up 81% year over year. Many of those AI roles don’t require formal credentials; demonstrated, hands-on experience is increasingly what employers are looking for.
The job market is sending mixed signals, but the opportunities are there if you know where to look. Whether you’re searching for your next role, building a team, or trying to understand what these trends mean for your hiring strategy, 4 Corner Resources has the expertise to help you navigate it.
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Why more workers are struggling than thriving for the first time ever
Welcome back to Cornering of the Job Market. Today’s headlines include a new Gallup report that says more American workers are now struggling than thriving for the first time ever. I’ll break that down in what they’re calling the Great Detachment. Plus, ADP research reveals the sector that’s generating more than 100% of all private sector job growth. I’ll tell you which one and why it’s not going to slow down anytime soon. And there’s a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research. They surveyed 750 CFOs to find out what AI is actually doing to jobs inside their companies. The answer might surprise you, and I’ll share that in a minute.
But first, Gallup just published its latest workforce well-being report, which is based on a survey of more than 22,000 employed adults. For the first time since Gallup started tracking this in early 22, more workers say they’re struggling than thriving. 49% are struggling, and 46% are thriving. But that shouldn’t be a complete surprise considering the time frame. 2022 was the strongest employee market I’ve ever seen by a long shot. So it makes sense that confidence was really high then, but it has collapsed. Only 28% of workers say now is a good time to find quality employment. That’s a 42-point drop from 70% in mid-22. So again, we we know that that was a peak time.
And so to compare anything against that is probably unrealistic. But when we’re seeing more workers that are struggling than thriving, that’s that’s never a good thing. Despite the pessimism, 51% of workers are either actively job hunting or watching for new opportunities. But among those who are looking, 49% are reporting they’re having a negative experience with their job search. Now, Gallup’s Sarah Fiorni describes the current environment as a workforce that is restless but largely stuck. Specifically, 30% of workers say they feel stuck. And when Gallup asked why, the answers were overwhelmingly financial related. 69% can’t afford to lose their current pay and benefits, and 51% can’t find comparable positions.
So it doesn’t sound like it’s a good market at all. The feelings that they’re having are for good reason. And Fiorni also said that what makes this moment distinct is not just the scale of discontent, but the conditions that surround it. Workers who want to leave largely can’t because they’re constrained by economics, a cooling labor market, and the difficulty of finding anything comparable. So people want to move, but there’s nowhere to go. And when they stay, they’re checking out. Employee engagement has dropped to 31%, which is the lowest in a decade. Gallup says that translates to a loss of 3.2 million engaged workers year over year. A lot of workers not very motivated to work. That is not a good thing for those employers who have workers like that. Look, if your people want to leave, but they feel like they can’t, you need to know that.
You need to acknowledge that they’re only staying because they have to. And when the market loosens up, they’re gonna run, they’re gonna move. That 3.2 million is a significant number. So if you’re an employer, you should be paying attention. Talk to your employees, survey them, let them know what’s going on. One more stat from this is that federal workers saw the sharpest decline of any group thriving, drop 12 points since 2022 from 60% down to 48%. So workers are frustrated, they’re stuck and disengaged.
Healthcare is generating 109% of all private sector job growth
But let’s turn this to a more positive note and look at where the jobs actually are. Although it’s only slightly positive because one sector is clearly carrying the entire economy. ADP Research Institute published a new analysis that shows the education and health services super sector generated over 75% of all private sector job gains between 23 and January 2025. That number hit 109%. So that’s one sector making up for all the job losses everywhere else, and then some.
Now healthcare accounts for about 88% of that super sector’s employment. Since 2000, healthcare has grown from 13% to nearly 20% of all private sector employment. ADP projects it could become the single largest private sector employment category within about 10 years. The fastest growth is in outpatient and home-based care. The home health aid workforce has swelled to nearly 3.9 million workers, but they’re among the lowest earners in the entire sector. And the driving force behind all of this is that approximately 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. The baby boomers are shrinking the prime age labor supply while driving up the demand for care. Nella Richardson from ADP wrote, unlike past labor market upheavals, this one isn’t being driven by technology. People, older people in particular, are having a profound effect on labor supply and demand in the United States.
So no question about it. When one sector accounts for 109% of all private sector job gains, that means the rest of the economy is contracting on a net basis. So healthcare is what it’s all about right now. So if you’re a job seeker or someone figuring out what to do in your career, this is a really reliable path to employment. It will be for the foreseeable future for many years to come. Because that 10,000 people turning 65 every day number, it all but guarantees this trend will continue for the foreseeable future.
ADP Weekly Pulse: 10,000 jobs a week and essentially no momentum
Now, there’s a quick note on the broader hiring picture. ADP released their national employment pulse report this week, which is just a weekly check-in on how jobs are going, how what the four-week average looks like. And employers right now are averaging 10,000 net new jobs a week, and that’s barely changed from the prior week. Weekly gains peaked at 15,500 in mid-February, but they’ve pulled back. So hiring has really slowed down, just not a lot of movement. I talk about the data uh that comes out, the jobs data all the time, and it’s just flat, flat, flat right now. So healthcare is really the only bright spot in the entire economy.
The NBER Executive Survey: What CFOs actually say AI is doing to headcount
Now, moving on, let’s talk about AI because we have to do that every day. The National Bureau of Economic Research has published a working paper based on a survey of nearly 750 CFOs and senior financial executives. The researchers asked executives directly, what is AI doing to jobs at your company? 50% of companies say AI will not replace any roles or responsibilities. Another 6% are unsure, and only 44% anticipate some degree of job replacement. So the aggregate employment impact is small.
The total employment is expected to decline by less than 0.4% due to AI in 2026. Now that’s roughly half a million workers, so that is a significant number, but as a percentage, it’s just not. So that’s different than what we hear a lot. It’s different than what I talk about a lot. I see the job cuts that are happening, companies are announcing it, CEOs are talking about it, but CFOs in particular don’t think it is going to be that significant this year. The researchers also documented what they’re calling a productivity paradox. Back in 1987, Nobel laureate Robert Solo said, you can see the computer age everywhere, but in the productivity statistics, the NBER team found the same pattern with AI today. Executives feel more productive, but the revenue numbers haven’t caught up yet.
So that tells you we’re still in the early stages of what AI is going to do to company performance. And as a heavy AI user, I get that. I have so many uses for it, but it does stir up a lot of extra work. And as of this moment, it is tough in some instances to tie it to productivity. The potential is definitely there though. So I’m sticking with that absolutely.
CompTIA’s 2026 Tech Workforce Report: Net job losses in 2025, a better outlook ahead
Moving on to our last story for the day. CompTIA just released its annual state of the tech workforce report. Net tech employment in the US actually declined in 2025. It went down. We lost 33,624 jobs. It’s a very precise number. So that’s how uh many fewer people were employed than the year before, but the projection for 2026 is better. CompTIA forecasts growth of about 128,000 jobs, so that’s good news. Also, the median tech occupation wage is 112,805, which is 126% higher than the median wage across all US occupations.
And that gap keeps widening. The fastest growing categories projected for 2026 are data science, data analysis, database roles, and machine learning. So if you’re in that space, good place to be, or if you’re young and trying to figure out which direction to go in in technology, well, that seems to be a pretty clear path. Also, AI hiring continues to accelerate. Employer job postings requiring AI skills, top 275,000 active listings in January 26. Dedicated AI hiring is up 81% year over year, and 35% of those AI postings don’t specify a minimum experience level. And I’ve seen that talked about a lot by companies who are hiring in the technology space. They’re not looking for years, they’re looking for relevant hands-on experience, which in many cases you can gain on your own.
And looking out 10 years, CompTIA also projects the tech workforce will grow at twice the rate of the overall U.S. workforce. So that’s again another positive sign. We see a lot about AI taking all those jobs. It’s going to change them to a significant degree, and it will certainly take some. It have repetitive tasks that AI can easily replicate, but the growth opportunities clearly are still going to be there. Data scientists lead all the roles in cybersecurity and software developers were also up there too. So again, even though AI is doing a lot of the software development, you still need a fundamental understanding of how it works in order to be effective in that role, even if AI is doing all the heavy lifting. So again, positive news for the tech space. I love ending on a positive note, which we will do.
Fun fact: The water cooler became a social hub because early models used a communal cup
But here’s your fun fact before we close the water cooler that became a social hub because early coolers used a communal cup. I did not know that. Can you imagine that today? A communal cup. No one would do that. It was banned for hygiene. Um, I didn’t know that was a thing. It makes sense that it was, but a communal cup, no, thank you. I will pass on that. I’ll go thirsty. So that is it for today. Thanks for listening. Please like, subscribe, share with anyone who you think might be interested. They’d appreciate it, and so would I. Look forward to talking to you tomorrow.
